The City of Cape Town is to expand its climate-change study, with special reference to rising sea levels, to establish its possible effect on the coast as well as other parts of the city.
The city council's head of environmental policy and strategy, Gregg Oelofse, said on Tuesday the council needed more detail on predictions of sea-level changes made by consultants LaquaR.
Their results were presented to the council's portfolio committee on planning and environment on Tuesday.
New research has shown that melting ice could submerge part of the Cape coast within 25 years - with multi-billion-rand repercussions.
Oelofse said the city needed to start tracking storm patterns to determine which of three different predicted sea-level-rise scenarios could become a reality.
The first, seen as worst-case, would result in a rise of at least 35cm above the average, along at least 25km2 of coast, but for a short period. It has a 95 percent chance of happening in the next 25 years, carrying with it a potential economic loss of more than R5-billion.
Scenario two is modelled on the first, with a sea-level rise of 4,5-mitres, which would submerge nearly 61km2 of coast, with an 85 percent probability within 25 years, and an economic price tag of nearly R24bn.
Scenario three, with a 20 percent likelihood in the next 25 years, was initially believed to be unlikely this century. This predicts that 95km2 of the Cape coast being submerged, resulting in damage to property, tourism and infrastructure estimated at R54-billion.
- Cape Argus
The city council's head of environmental policy and strategy, Gregg Oelofse, said on Tuesday the council needed more detail on predictions of sea-level changes made by consultants LaquaR.
Their results were presented to the council's portfolio committee on planning and environment on Tuesday.
New research has shown that melting ice could submerge part of the Cape coast within 25 years - with multi-billion-rand repercussions.
Oelofse said the city needed to start tracking storm patterns to determine which of three different predicted sea-level-rise scenarios could become a reality.
The first, seen as worst-case, would result in a rise of at least 35cm above the average, along at least 25km2 of coast, but for a short period. It has a 95 percent chance of happening in the next 25 years, carrying with it a potential economic loss of more than R5-billion.
Scenario two is modelled on the first, with a sea-level rise of 4,5-mitres, which would submerge nearly 61km2 of coast, with an 85 percent probability within 25 years, and an economic price tag of nearly R24bn.
Scenario three, with a 20 percent likelihood in the next 25 years, was initially believed to be unlikely this century. This predicts that 95km2 of the Cape coast being submerged, resulting in damage to property, tourism and infrastructure estimated at R54-billion.
- Cape Argus
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